Deserted-Earring
0x9286e3a7908f5f1d3d79291358abbb0e46bf2e11
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
109
Open notional
$135.02
Total PnL
$-490.93
Realised
$-14.66
Win rate
0%
101 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 109- NO
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?
50 shares @ 94.1¢·now 96.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$48.04
$1.27
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
50 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.14
$1.75
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
36 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.79
$0.54
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
73 shares @ 6.6¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.99
$-0.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 20?
11 shares @ 5.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$2.04
$1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on August 19?
11 shares @ 68.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$0.01
$-7.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 30?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 4?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 13?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 11?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 20?$0.54Aug 20, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 20?$0.00Aug 20, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on August 19?$7.62Aug 19, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down on August 19?$1.11Aug 19, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 19?$1.05Aug 19, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 18?$0.10Aug 18, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 18?$0.10Aug 18, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 14?$18.74Aug 14, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 13?$1.05Aug 13, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 13?$1.05Aug 13, 01:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on August 12?$25.90Aug 12, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 12?$5.06Aug 12, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 12?$3.57Aug 12, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 11?$1.05Aug 11, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on August 11?$1.07Aug 11, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 10?$1.05Aug 10, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on August 9?$1.05Aug 9, 17:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill FC Dallas win on 2026-08-08?$31.26Aug 9, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 9?$14.35Aug 9, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Dallas win on 2026-08-08?$6.82Aug 8, 16:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 101 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
101 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $4.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 20:25 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 02:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 101 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.