Personal-Neighbourhood
0x92d050a9e3db167726b2b4fd9e4c3c6d65c25630
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
106
Open notional
$12.31
Total PnL
$-822.45
Realised
$-47.59
Win rate
3%
74 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 106- NO
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
4 shares @ 64.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.88
$1.32
- YES
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?
4 shares @ 64.5¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.13
$-0.34
- YES
Will the season series between the Bengals and Browns end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
5 shares @ 40.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$1.97
$0.12
- NO
Will All Gamers Qualify to VCT Champs 2026?
2 shares @ 15.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.90
$1.60
- NO
Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?
4 shares @ 37.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.79
$-0.64
- YES
Will the season series between the Cardinals and 49ers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
4 shares @ 37.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$0.69
$-0.91
- NO
Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?
1 shares @ 60.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Apr 1, 2027$0.56
$-0.04
- NO
Will JL Find a Team Before September?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.19
$-0.87
- NO
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026?
3 shares @ 20.5¢·now 5.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.17
$-0.45
- NO
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?
1 shares @ 22.0¢·now 2.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.03
$-0.24
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?$2.82Aug 18, 18:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina's monthly inflation in July 2026 be between 2.1% and 2.3%?$4.00Aug 14, 00:18 UTC
- REWARD$76.66Aug 7, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill StoneX Group (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings?$5.97Aug 5, 20:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) beat quarterly earnings?$4.60Aug 4, 11:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?$3.00Jul 29, 20:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill "72 Hours" be the top global Netflix movie this week?$18.31Jul 28, 21:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?$12.40Jul 27, 01:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?$7.20Jul 26, 22:49 UTC
- TRADESELLMastercard (MA) Q2 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 7.5%-8.5%?$3.53Jul 26, 11:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?$3.45Jul 25, 23:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on July 25?$1.21Jul 25, 22:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?$4.80Jul 25, 03:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$3.82Jul 25, 01:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?$4.20Jul 25, 00:19 UTC
- REWARD$22.72Jul 25, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "72 Hours" be the top global Netflix movie this week?$2.13Jul 24, 18:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?$10.35Jul 24, 16:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2.5T yuan?$5.00Jul 24, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "72 Hours" be the top global Netflix movie this week?$2.08Jul 24, 14:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 74 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
74 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $6.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 00:45 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 18:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 74 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.