Shameless-Causal
0x92eb5422f6c1cf64ca626625ff6e7b59bcec81e4
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
97
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$108.36
Win rate
62%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 97- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 23?
1221 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-85.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 10PM ET
754 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-43.72
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5?
746 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-64.65
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 25?
593 shares @ 11.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-70.03
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on January 30?
466 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-34.90
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 30?
426 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down on February 13?
389 shares @ 19.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-74.64
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 4AM ET
347 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-27.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
302 shares @ 13.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down on January 29?
268 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-34.81
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$9.08Jul 14, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$6.26Jul 14, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$4.20Jul 14, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$10.50Jul 14, 06:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$9.41Jul 14, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$5.26Jul 14, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$10.41Jul 14, 06:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$13.01Jul 14, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$5.22Jul 14, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on July 14?$31.30Jul 14, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET$5.16Jul 13, 03:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$11.23Jul 13, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$10.41Jul 13, 03:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$6.23Jul 13, 03:14 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.22Jul 10, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.63Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$4.15Jul 1, 04:49 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.21Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.70Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$4.65Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
62% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $12.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 27, 14:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 06:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.