Arid-Expectation
0x933210182952eebf553a1c7ddc31430276840f89
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$978.50
Total PnL
$-7.7K
Realised
$-26.01
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
1000 shares @ 41.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$978.50
$568.50
- YES
Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January?
26948 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.6K
- NO
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
26162 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.2K
- YES
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31?
14500 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-606.75
- NO
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $90 by end of February?
9657 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-197.37
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?
8877 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.0K
- NO
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $95 by end of February?
8709 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-84.80
- NO
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $85 by end of February?
3578 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-108.43
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
1131 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-282.76
- YES
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025?
373 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-156.86
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February?$0.00Apr 2, 12:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February?$0.00Apr 2, 12:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany join the Board of Peace?$0.00Apr 2, 12:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February?$1.3KApr 2, 12:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany join the Board of Peace?$4.2KApr 2, 12:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ukraine join the Board of Peace?$2.1KApr 2, 12:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill China join the Board of Peace?$5.6KApr 2, 12:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February?$272.79Apr 2, 12:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?$132.63Mar 9, 04:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?$107.15Mar 9, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?$279.49Mar 8, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$410.00Mar 1, 02:01 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: Khamenei$1.50Mar 1, 01:44 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: Khamenei$9.99Mar 1, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: Khamenei$7.14Mar 1, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: Khamenei$11.33Mar 1, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: Khamenei$1.12Mar 1, 01:19 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?$4.5KFeb 28, 07:25 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?$3.00Feb 28, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?$204.16Feb 28, 07:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $297.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 28, 06:32 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 2, 12:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".