Occasional-Transcript
0x9334783c8bfeda7f786d64f5f733e957ca71c36f
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-205.16
Realised
$-86.25
Win rate
0%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10?
185 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.48
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?
165 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.15
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on January 26?
164 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.78
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on January 30?
156 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23?
143 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.14
- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 26?
132 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.14
- UP
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
105 shares @ 26.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-27.98
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 24?
104 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.55
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on January 30?
91 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.17
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 20?
78 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.04
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on July 25?$230.00Jul 25, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on July 25?$228.16Jul 24, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 26?$2.29Jun 25, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?$2.30May 31, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27?$220.86May 27, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27?$219.09May 26, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23?$1.22May 22, 22:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 20?$181.43May 20, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 20?$180.16May 19, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on May 18?$2.35May 18, 00:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 12?$182.25May 12, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 12?$179.88May 12, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10?$1.58May 10, 14:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18?$168.18Apr 25, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - April 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$2.81Apr 18, 19:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on March 31?$180.88Apr 18, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18?$166.33Apr 17, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13?$1.33Apr 12, 19:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 27?$0.00Apr 12, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on April 13?$2.65Apr 12, 16:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $73.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 30, 01:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 16:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.