Old-Fashioned-Familiar
0x9388da6e4a2e20a631844996c78b88e8ef2dad42
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
87
Open notional
$46.33
Total PnL
$-4.3K
Realised
$-778.37
Win rate
9%
82 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 87- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 19?
28 shares @ 83.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$25.65
$2.26
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 19?
35 shares @ 69.4¢·now 59.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$20.67
$-3.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 6?
482 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-109.19
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 1?
436 shares @ 54.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-236.87
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 6?
398 shares @ 18.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-74.59
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 25?
260 shares @ 64.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-167.68
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 22?
243 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-148.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 17?
213 shares @ 73.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-156.12
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26?
212 shares @ 63.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-135.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 6?
195 shares @ 20.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-40.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 19?$23.60Aug 18, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 19?$24.69Aug 18, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 18?$27.96Aug 18, 03:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 17?$41.23Aug 17, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 18?$25.85Aug 17, 05:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 16?$35.21Aug 16, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 17?$24.82Aug 16, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 17?$26.71Aug 16, 04:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 15?$48.98Aug 15, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 16?$25.36Aug 15, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 16?$27.52Aug 15, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 15?$28.03Aug 14, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 15?$31.20Aug 14, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 24?$31.88Jul 24, 04:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 23?$53.47Jul 23, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 24?$31.30Jul 23, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 23?$33.38Jul 22, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 23?$35.89Jul 22, 03:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 21?$48.28Jul 21, 16:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 21?$44.09Jul 21, 16:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
9% win rate over 82 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
82 closed markets, 9% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $24.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 03:57 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 05:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 82 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.