Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-109.04

Realised

$-4.18

Win rate

16 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 16

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
174 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
71 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Norway?
37 shares @ 83.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-30.91
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET
31 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
21 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
16 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
14 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
YES
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?
11 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$15.43Jul 12, 11:41 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$1.91Jul 12, 08:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$5.26Jul 12, 08:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$3.11Jul 12, 08:42 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$20.00Jul 12, 08:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$10.45Jul 12, 08:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$5.24Jul 12, 08:32 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET$0.06Jul 11, 22:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET$3.14Jul 11, 22:52 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$7.69Jul 11, 22:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$5.17Jul 11, 22:44 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$9.56Jul 11, 22:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$2.09Jul 11, 22:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$3.13Jul 11, 22:25 UTC
TRADESELLNorway vs. England: Draw at halftime?$1.05Jul 11, 21:47 UTC
TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Draw at halftime?$6.23Jul 11, 18:50 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$2.06Jul 6, 17:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$2.02Jul 6, 13:27 UTC
TRADESELLWill 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$2.25Jul 6, 13:26 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$23.08Jul 6, 00:56 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

41/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 16 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity40 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence53 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry44 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk37 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 39
Avg trade size: $7.15
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 5, 22:47 UTC
Last active: Jul 12, 11:41 UTC
Win rate sample: 16 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 17:57:36 UTC·src:Polymarket Data