0x9417eea754462ae7912696239cbdbb66139428a3
0x9417eea754462ae7912696239cbdbb66139428a3
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$-880.95
Realised
$-127.73
Win rate
28%
54 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 13?
155 shares @ 85.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$154.99
$22.41
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 13?
56 shares @ 93.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$56.35
$3.85
- DOSTANIC
Baton Rouge: Stefan Dostanic vs Andres Andrade
45 shares @ 22.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$45.45
$35.45
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 16?
44 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$43.50
$13.48
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 13?
35 shares @ 83.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$34.80
$5.81
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 48°F or higher on February 15?
33 shares @ 79.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$33.00
$6.91
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on February 13?
30 shares @ 91.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$30.00
$2.65
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 16?
25 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$25.00
$5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
23 shares @ 31.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$22.58
$15.58
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on February 15?
23 shares @ 83.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$22.57
$3.82
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$0.41Feb 25, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$1.82Feb 25, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$1.87Feb 24, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$0.00Feb 24, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$0.78Feb 24, 21:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$1.22Feb 24, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$1.66Feb 24, 21:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$1.71Feb 24, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$1.82Feb 24, 21:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$1.95Feb 24, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$1.77Feb 24, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$0.62Feb 24, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$1.46Feb 24, 20:47 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$2.00Feb 24, 20:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$1.77Feb 24, 20:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$0.98Feb 24, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$1.61Feb 24, 18:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$0.52Feb 24, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$1.40Feb 24, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$1.85Feb 24, 18:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
28% win rate over 54 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
54 closed markets, 28% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 24, 03:17 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 25, 18:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 54 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.