Wallet digest

active

Activity score

68/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

100

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-423.91

Realised

$17.13

Win rate

94%

17 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 100

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
261 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
214 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-12.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
110 shares @ 18.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-20.01
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
34 shares @ 29.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
21 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-8.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
21 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-8.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$1.02May 26, 21:02 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$1.16May 26, 21:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$1.03May 26, 21:00 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$1.11May 26, 21:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$1.01May 26, 20:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$1.03May 26, 20:50 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$1.25May 26, 20:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$1.03May 26, 20:47 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$1.27May 26, 20:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$1.03May 26, 20:45 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$1.01May 26, 20:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$1.01May 26, 20:42 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$1.35May 26, 20:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$1.03May 26, 20:40 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$0.57May 26, 20:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$1.03May 26, 20:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$1.04May 26, 20:30 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$1.08May 26, 20:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$1.01May 26, 20:27 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$1.33May 26, 20:27 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

47/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

94% win rate over 17 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity43 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence57 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry68 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk33 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 50
Avg trade size: $1.21
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 26, 19:35 UTC
Last active: May 26, 21:02 UTC
Win rate sample: 17 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:58:58 UTC·src:Polymarket Data