Informal-Boutique
0x945a49252f772a10c6ddd1d1e1e24ee20438a48c
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$7.1K
Total PnL
$-258.62
Realised
$285.55
Win rate
58%
146 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
787 shares @ 75.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$786.17
$188.78
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 28?
698 shares @ 53.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$697.21
$324.94
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
863 shares @ 62.4¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$651.29
$112.72
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
512 shares @ 57.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$511.45
$219.29
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
638 shares @ 57.6¢·now 74.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$473.79
$106.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 28?
420 shares @ 57.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$420.06
$179.14
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 28?
412 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$411.59
$160.21
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
341 shares @ 80.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$341.12
$67.77
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
334 shares @ 82.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$333.79
$57.23
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?
315 shares @ 49.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$315.03
$159.23
Recent activity
- REDEEMBNB Up or Down on July 28?$10.00Jul 28, 16:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 28?$316.58Jul 28, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 28?$71.35Jul 28, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 28?$111.60Jul 28, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 28?$124.13Jul 28, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 28?$185.43Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?$5.85Jul 28, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?$8.40Jul 28, 16:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 28?$205.69Jul 28, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 28?$43.37Jul 28, 15:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 28?$256.79Jul 28, 15:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 28?$92.59Jul 28, 15:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 28?$73.72Jul 28, 15:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 28?$42.00Jul 28, 15:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 28?$217.82Jul 28, 15:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 28?$71.14Jul 28, 15:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 28?$16.33Jul 28, 15:45 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: Atreides vs ex-RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stage$10.00Jul 28, 15:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 28?$89.67Jul 28, 15:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 28?$14.98Jul 28, 15:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 146 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
146 closed markets, 58% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $2.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 10:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 146 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.