Lavish-Sill
0x946fba7bcb03506336f859032ce55054d49b163b
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-397.36
Realised
$-8.12
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
20000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
20000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - February 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET
375 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-39.90
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
317 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-33.92
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
299 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-37.55
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
272 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-29.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3PM ET
266 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-45.23
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
243 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3AM ET
139 shares @ 35.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-49.46
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
115 shares @ 21.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.06Jul 17, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$5.32Jul 17, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$10.59Jul 17, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$10.59Jul 17, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$10.59Jul 17, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$10.55Jul 17, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$1.06Jul 17, 08:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$20.19Jul 17, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$10.55Jul 17, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$10.53Jul 17, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$10.50Jul 17, 08:41 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$0.00Jul 17, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$10.67Jul 17, 08:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$19.65Jul 17, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$10.57Jul 17, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$10.47Jul 17, 08:28 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$49.64Jul 17, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$10.59Jul 17, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$10.49Jul 17, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$10.49Jul 17, 08:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $10.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 08:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 09:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.