Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-334.30

Realised

$-3.32

Win rate

15 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 25

YES
Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-4.95
YES
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals
55 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-9.90
YES
Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals
55 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-4.95
YES
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals
55 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-9.90
YES
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals
40 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-9.90
SEA
Spread: SEA (-2.5)
39 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026
$0.00
$-19.61
NO
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
39 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026
$0.00
$-19.80
NO
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels
38 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026
$0.00
$-19.80
UNDER
Kovacevic vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 23.5
38 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026
$0.00
$-18.87
NEW YORK LIBERTY
New York Liberty vs. Indiana Fever
37 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026
$0.00
$-19.80

Recent activity

REDEEMDAL vs. SEA: O/U 37.5$41.39Aug 16, 05:05 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5)$5.00Aug 16, 02:46 UTC
REDEEMLos Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 173.5$27.27Aug 16, 02:07 UTC
REDEEMLos Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 172.5$5.00Aug 16, 02:06 UTC
TRADEBUYRams vs. Chiefs$3.99Aug 15, 16:09 UTC
TRADEBUYJaguars vs. Saints$19.65Aug 15, 16:08 UTC
REDEEMYunnan Yukun FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 3.5$20.00Aug 15, 16:05 UTC
TRADEBUYRams vs. Chiefs$2.55Aug 15, 15:58 UTC
TRADEBUYRams vs. Chiefs$6.36Aug 15, 15:52 UTC
TRADEBUYRams vs. Chiefs$6.36Aug 15, 15:17 UTC
TRADEBUYRams vs. Chiefs$0.38Aug 15, 14:43 UTC
TRADEBUYDAL vs. SEA: O/U 37.5$7.25Aug 15, 13:58 UTC
TRADEBUYLos Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 172.5$2.56Aug 15, 10:50 UTC
REDEEMKovacevic vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 22.5$27.27Aug 15, 04:19 UTC
REDEEMWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels$31.25Aug 15, 02:11 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5)$2.56Aug 15, 00:28 UTC
REDEEMShandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5$20.41Aug 14, 15:37 UTC
REDEEMWashington Mystics vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 169.5$31.25Aug 14, 04:42 UTC
REDEEMFernandez vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5$19.61Aug 10, 01:03 UTC
REDEEMWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Athletics$32.44Jul 19, 02:31 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

44/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 15 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity57 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence50 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry76 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk39 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 29
Avg trade size: $11.62
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 30, 19:37 UTC
Last active: Aug 16, 05:05 UTC
Win rate sample: 15 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:19:43 UTC·src:Polymarket Data