Wonderful-Scotch
0x94c4fe3b18435aa92024c7c1589537fcda3f43ca
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
51
Open notional
$64.0K
Total PnL
$-122.7K
Realised
$-14.4K
Win rate
40%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- YES
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
37810 shares @ 40.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$14.9K
$-182.32
- YES
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
23901 shares @ 34.7¢·now 44.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.5K
$2.2K
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
20637 shares @ 42.3¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$9.2K
$451.38
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
8203 shares @ 55.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$8.2K
$3.6K
- YES
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 25% and 30%?
7060 shares @ 70.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$7.1K
$2.1K
- YES
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?
4700 shares @ 77.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$4.7K
$1.1K
- YES
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
9288 shares @ 19.5¢·now 33.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$3.1K
$1.3K
- YES
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
14760 shares @ 19.9¢·now 14.3¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$2.1K
$-817.47
- YES
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
324544 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.1K
$-1.1K
- YES
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
6650 shares @ 11.9¢·now 17.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$1.1K
$341.67
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.20Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.23Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.23Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$9.62Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
18 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $10.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 00:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.