Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-15.9K

Realised

$-7.9K

Win rate

193 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 8AM ET
399 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025
$0.00
$-0.54
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 9AM ET
342 shares @ 62.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025
$0.00
$-213.47
UP
XRP Up or Down - November 20, 12PM ET
336 shares @ 30.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025
$0.00
$-101.67
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 9AM ET
334 shares @ 38.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2025
$0.00
$-128.22
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 9AM ET
320 shares @ 41.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025
$0.00
$-133.91
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 5PM ET
299 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2025
$0.00
$-77.95
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 6PM ET
296 shares @ 20.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025
$0.00
$-61.89
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 1PM ET
285 shares @ 43.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025
$0.00
$-123.28
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 9AM ET
269 shares @ 30.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025
$0.00
$-82.78
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8PM ET
252 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2025
$0.00
$-145.86

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 2PM ET$23.11Dec 1, 23:29 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - December 1, 2PM ET$23.72Dec 1, 23:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4PM ET$1.61Dec 1, 21:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4PM ET$1.00Dec 1, 21:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4PM ET$1.28Dec 1, 21:13 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 1, 4PM ET$1.09Dec 1, 21:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4PM ET$1.35Dec 1, 21:09 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 1, 4PM ET$1.17Dec 1, 21:09 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 1, 4PM ET$1.29Dec 1, 21:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4PM ET$1.37Dec 1, 21:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4PM ET$1.20Dec 1, 21:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4PM ET$1.34Dec 1, 21:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4PM ET$1.05Dec 1, 21:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4PM ET$1.54Dec 1, 21:01 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 1, 3PM ET$1.23Dec 1, 20:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 3PM ET$1.02Dec 1, 20:41 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 1, 3PM ET$1.06Dec 1, 20:41 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 1, 3PM ET$1.17Dec 1, 20:41 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 1, 3PM ET$1.01Dec 1, 20:33 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 3PM ET$1.20Dec 1, 20:32 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

64/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 193 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

193 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry67 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk23 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 45
Avg trade size: $1.24
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Dec 1, 19:33 UTC
Last active: Dec 1, 23:29 UTC
Win rate sample: 193 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:35:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data