Compassionate-Kneejerk
0x95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
182
Open notional
$467.9K
Total PnL
$20.9K
Realised
$2.0K
Win rate
76%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 182- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
94890 shares @ 89.6¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$90.8K
$5.8K
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
60000 shares @ 91.3¢·now 96.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$57.6K
$2.8K
- NO
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?
32000 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$32.0K
$16.00
- NO
Iran Nuke before 2027?
28134 shares @ 88.2¢·now 94.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.6K
$1.8K
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
21338 shares @ 90.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.6K
$1.4K
- NO
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
14096 shares @ 95.0¢·now 98.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.8K
$447.55
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
18849 shares @ 67.3¢·now 65.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$12.3K
$-344.32
- NO
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
12664 shares @ 88.7¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.0K
$792.84
- NO
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
11829 shares @ 94.8¢·now 97.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.6K
$354.38
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
11000 shares @ 87.5¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.1K
$445.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$999.00Jul 25, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$999.00Jul 25, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$10.0KJul 25, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$10.0KJul 25, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$4.7KJul 25, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$226.57Jul 25, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?$68.92Jul 25, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$342.58Jul 25, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$300.13Jul 25, 02:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$190.00Jul 25, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?$4.9KJul 25, 01:36 UTC
- TRADESELLBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?$52.80Jul 25, 00:29 UTC
- YIELD$1.65Jul 25, 00:16 UTC
- REWARD$1.66Jul 25, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?$551.30Jul 24, 23:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$1.5KJul 24, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?$9.08Jul 24, 23:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?$7.39Jul 24, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$2.9KJul 24, 22:25 UTC
- TRADESELLBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?$66.36Jul 24, 22:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$259.6K
Trades
7
Buy share
97%
Window
May 18, 02:40 UTC → Jun 27, 04:52 UTC
- BUYWill Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?$6.1K@100¢Jun 27, 04:52 UTC
- BUYStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$7.2K@100¢Jun 22, 08:15 UTC
- BUYWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?$10.4K@100¢Jun 18, 00:37 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$9.7K@98¢Jun 15, 16:33 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$6.7K@97¢Jun 15, 07:49 UTC
- BUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?$5.6K@100¢Jun 12, 16:29 UTC
- BUYWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$52.8K@99¢May 20, 01:43 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
76% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 21 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$6.1K
1 trades
Buy share
97%
Sample
medium
21 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
$52.8K · 20% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $1.2K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 05:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.