Imperfect-Roundabout
0x9513bedebfe1038fba3f20b4aaecbe1489581dc6
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.9K
Realised
$-122.40
Win rate
65%
55 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on January 7?
5501 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-108.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on January 7?
4835 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-239.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 53°F or below on January 10?
1848 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-18.57
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on January 13?
1062 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-82.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on January 13?
997 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-12.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on January 19?
589 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-84.64
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or below on January 27?
470 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -11°C or below on January 15?
450 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C on January 14?
329 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 32°F or higher on February 3?
318 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-6.13
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on February 6?$13.54Feb 11, 07:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 5?$15.36Feb 11, 07:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on February 6?$15.87Feb 11, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on February 6?$14.87Feb 6, 12:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or higher on February 6?$4.10Feb 6, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on February 6?$12.47Feb 6, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on February 6?$0.09Feb 6, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on February 5?$0.44Feb 5, 19:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on February 6?$1.02Feb 5, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 5?$0.25Feb 5, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 5?$0.14Feb 5, 15:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 6?$0.16Feb 5, 15:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 6?$0.32Feb 5, 15:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 6?$1.20Feb 5, 15:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 6?$0.31Feb 5, 15:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 6?$0.84Feb 5, 15:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 6?$0.55Feb 5, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 5?$0.08Feb 5, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 5?$0.02Feb 5, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 5?$0.09Feb 5, 15:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
65% win rate over 55 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
55 closed markets, 65% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $1.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 5, 08:56 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 11, 07:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 55 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.