Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-418.58

Realised

$-15.59

Win rate

21 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 24

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET
545 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?
465 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
286 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
179 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
YES
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?
131 shares @ 22.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
YES
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?
130 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
76 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
64 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET$5.25Jul 11, 22:57 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$0.00Jul 11, 22:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$0.00Jul 11, 22:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET$5.20Jul 11, 22:51 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$0.00Jul 11, 22:50 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$5.26Jul 11, 22:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$5.02Jul 11, 22:49 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$0.00Jul 11, 22:47 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$8.93Jul 11, 22:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$1.04Jul 11, 22:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$5.15Jul 11, 22:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$5.14Jul 11, 22:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$5.16Jul 11, 22:36 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$15.39Jul 11, 21:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.06Jul 11, 21:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.16Jul 11, 21:40 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$5.95Jul 11, 21:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$5.19Jul 11, 21:36 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$7.46Jul 11, 21:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$5.06Jul 11, 21:34 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

47/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 21 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity37 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence70 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry46 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk37 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 29
Avg trade size: $6.43
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 10, 22:34 UTC
Last active: Jul 11, 22:57 UTC
Win rate sample: 21 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:01:01 UTC·src:Polymarket Data