Past-Believer
0x9578d213ab67114d4e35761fb715faac442d20b9
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
66
Open notional
$60.57
Total PnL
$-50.76
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 66- YES
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2026?
6 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.64
$1.75
- YES
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
5 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.04
$0.04
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.25
$0.25
- NO
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$2.20
$0.20
- NO
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by February 28?
2 shares @ 91.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$2.19
$0.19
- YES
Will the NYC nurses strike end by February 28, 2026?
2 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$2.17
$0.17
- NO
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31?
2 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.17
$0.17
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
2 shares @ 96.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$2.08
$0.08
- YES
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
2 shares @ 96.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.08
$0.08
- NO
Will Iranian officials visit the White House by February 28?
2 shares @ 96.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$2.06
$0.06
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Switzerland win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$1.03Feb 26, 10:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$1.08Feb 26, 10:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Newcastle United advance to the round of 16?$1.09Feb 26, 10:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?$1.15Feb 26, 10:38 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine hits Moscow by February 14, 2026?$1.26Feb 26, 10:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Paris Saint-Germain advance to the round of 16?$2.02Feb 26, 10:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Dutch government be CDA + D66?$2.08Feb 26, 10:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill NSC be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?$3.02Feb 26, 10:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$1.15Feb 22, 21:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sweden win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$2.06Feb 22, 21:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netherlands win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$2.07Feb 22, 21:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$2.13Feb 22, 21:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill China win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$3.03Feb 22, 21:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump’s approval rating be at least 42.0 on February 20, 2026?$1.05Feb 22, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.0 on February 20, 2026?$1.19Feb 22, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?$1.05Feb 21, 10:49 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?$1.11Feb 21, 10:49 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?$1.05Feb 19, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?$1.05Feb 18, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?$1.05Feb 18, 16:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $1.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 11, 08:20 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 26, 10:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.