Wallet digest

active

Activity score

29/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.1K

Realised

$-75.25

Win rate

29 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 9AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
69 shares @ 14.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
56 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2025
$0.00
$-32.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
38 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2025
$0.00
$-16.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
36 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025
$0.00
$-16.00
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - December 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
36 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2025
$0.00
$-16.00
UP
XRP Up or Down - November 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
33 shares @ 75.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 26, 2025
$0.00
$-25.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
33 shares @ 88.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025
$0.00
$-29.00
UP
XRP Up or Down - December 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
32 shares @ 77.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025
$0.00
$-25.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$3.23Jul 22, 16:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$3.01Jul 22, 16:14 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$3.45Jul 22, 16:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$3.03Jul 22, 16:04 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$3.33Jul 22, 16:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$3.02Jul 22, 15:59 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$3.19Jul 22, 15:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$3.01Jul 22, 15:49 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$3.30Jul 22, 15:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$3.02Jul 22, 15:44 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$3.33Jul 22, 15:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$3.02Jul 22, 15:39 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$2.89Jul 22, 15:24 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$3.01Jul 22, 15:24 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$3.16Jul 22, 15:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$3.01Jul 22, 15:19 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$3.03Jul 22, 15:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$3.00Jul 22, 15:09 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$3.30Jul 22, 15:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$3.02Jul 22, 14:59 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

57/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 29 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity66 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence97 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry31 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk25 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 27
Avg trade size: $2.93
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 22, 11:14 UTC
Last active: Jul 22, 16:15 UTC
Win rate sample: 29 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 16:23:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data