Improbable-Metric
0x959fe10a9da5afe60555c996b48855b24c97d712
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-153.79
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?
1000 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-44.79
- YES
Will Fierceness win the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?
900 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-63.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
200 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-22.00
- YES
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?
200 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2025?
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 43.5 and 43.9 on November 7 2025?
40 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 8, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.5 and 42.9 on November 7 2025?
40 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 8, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?
20 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 2, 2025$0.00
$-11.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?$63.00Dec 8, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?$35.76Dec 7, 05:15 UTC
- TRADESELLEvacuation of Tehran ordered in 2025?$6.20Dec 7, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?$9.03Dec 7, 05:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Government shutdown end by November 15?$0.00Nov 14, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYEvacuation of Tehran ordered in 2025?$7.12Nov 12, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYEvacuation of Tehran ordered in 2025?$0.88Nov 12, 04:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?$4.40Nov 11, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?$1.60Nov 11, 15:28 UTC
- TRADESELLSupreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?$48.00Nov 10, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Government shutdown end by November 15?$52.00Nov 9, 19:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?$81.00Nov 9, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?$20.28Nov 8, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?$65.72Nov 8, 07:23 UTC
- TRADESELLNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?$60.00Nov 8, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYSupreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?$52.00Nov 7, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?$22.00Nov 7, 18:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Government shutdown end by November 15?$85.87Nov 7, 05:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Government shutdown end by November 15?$10.12Nov 7, 05:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Peloton Interactive (PTON) beat quarterly earnings?$40.00Nov 7, 04:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $20.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 5, 03:40 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 8, 12:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".