Mammoth-Hop
0x95dcb3d91f4c83b09fbc5a8b6f52a4a45d134b45
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$68.1K
Total PnL
$-12.5K
Realised
$-1.8K
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
18593 shares @ 93.4¢·now 95.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.7K
$338.90
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?
11786 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$11.7K
$5.89
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?
5200 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.1K
$2.60
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?
5000 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.0K
$7.50
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in July?
4968 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.0K
$0.00
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?
4510 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.5K
$2.25
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?
4226 shares @ 98.6¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.2K
$2.11
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 73°F or below on July 28?
3739 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$3.7K
$1.87
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?
1648 shares @ 98.4¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.6K
$-0.64
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?
1293 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.3K
$0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 28?$43.97Jul 28, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on July 28?$54.38Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on July 28?$131.87Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on July 28?$66.93Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on July 28?$117.11Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 28?$15.75Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on July 28?$15.75Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 28?$4.06Jul 28, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?$2.48Jul 28, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?$3.09Jul 28, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 28?$13.99Jul 28, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 28?$185.81Jul 28, 20:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 28?$200.00Jul 28, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on July 28?$6.56Jul 28, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?$2.96Jul 28, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 28?$5.00Jul 28, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 28?$106.89Jul 28, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 28?$1.35Jul 28, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 28?$11.39Jul 28, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?$3.42Jul 28, 18:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 24?
$7.3K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $47.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 17:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 21:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.