Bogus-Manacle
0x963fca71bd07e86aaf9985934f3df6e19edd4ef2
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$11.18
Total PnL
$-1.57
Realised
$-0.59
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
9 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$8.90
$0.03
- NO
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.4¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$2.29
$-0.01
- NO
Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $20-23m?
1 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga?$2.00Dec 18, 13:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?$288.84Dec 18, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?$298.00Dec 16, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga?$2.00Dec 16, 02:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?$297.40Dec 16, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?$300.00Dec 16, 02:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?$1.48Dec 16, 02:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $120K in June?$1.04Nov 8, 16:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill XRP dip to $1.7 in June?$1.10Nov 8, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $20-23m?$1.00Jun 19, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP dip to $1.7 in June?$1.00Jun 19, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?$1.00Jun 19, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $120K in June?$1.00Jun 19, 11:59 UTC
- REDEEMFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?$2.01Jun 19, 11:54 UTC
- REDEEMLiverpool wins the Premier League?$2.09Jun 19, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?$2.00Apr 11, 11:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump say "Rug Pull" during Crypto Summit on Friday?$2.08Apr 11, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump say "Rug Pull" during Crypto Summit on Friday?$2.00Mar 6, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYLiverpool wins the Premier League?$2.00Mar 6, 13:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Boston Bruins win the 2025 Stanley Cup?$1.00Mar 6, 13:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $43.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 2, 04:12 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 18, 13:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.