Strict-Liver
0x965b0391f66bdf65d9a7be6826278a98e978e530
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$57.01
Total PnL
$-50.01
Realised
$-38.43
Win rate
25%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or higher on July 16?
14 shares @ 78.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$10.57
$-0.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 16?
14 shares @ 47.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$7.35
$0.77
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 16?
20 shares @ 27.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$5.10
$-0.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 16?
20 shares @ 23.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$4.70
$0.10
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on July 16?
20 shares @ 30.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$4.40
$-1.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on July 16?
14 shares @ 31.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$3.32
$-0.88
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on July 16?
10 shares @ 32.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$3.20
$0.00
- YES
Will “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?
12 shares @ 41.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$3.12
$-1.62
- YES
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting?
5 shares @ 76.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$2.99
$-0.83
- NO
Will GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 orders be above $24B?
3 shares @ 85.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$2.55
$-0.13
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 16?$2.40Jul 14, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on July 16?$3.20Jul 14, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 16?$5.40Jul 14, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 16?$6.85Jul 14, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 16?$1.05Jul 14, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 16?$0.32Jul 14, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 16?$1.42Jul 14, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 16?$2.08Jul 14, 10:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30?$3.66Jul 14, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30?$4.04Jul 14, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or higher on July 16?$10.64Jul 14, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 16?$7.60Jul 14, 10:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on July 16?$2.00Jul 14, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on July 16?$6.20Jul 14, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 16?$2.30Jul 14, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 16?$2.30Jul 14, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on July 16?$6.00Jul 14, 09:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 16?$0.45Jul 14, 09:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 16?$1.18Jul 14, 09:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 16?$1.25Jul 14, 09:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $7.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 22:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 10:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.