Selfish-Curve
0x96c444be3b24552a514507c3032c6b2dd886e168
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
123
Open notional
$2.2K
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-243.73
Win rate
44%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 123- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on July 29?
190 shares @ 98.3¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$187.81
$1.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on July 28?
169 shares @ 97.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$168.92
$4.44
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on July 29?
171 shares @ 96.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$168.44
$4.28
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 29?
166 shares @ 98.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$165.92
$2.91
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 30?
168 shares @ 97.7¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$165.48
$1.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 29?
167 shares @ 95.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$148.63
$-10.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 29?
138 shares @ 96.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$137.93
$4.33
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on July 29?
111 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$110.94
$2.16
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C or higher on July 29?
110 shares @ 98.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$109.94
$1.70
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 30?
111 shares @ 97.5¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$109.39
$1.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 30?$54.38Jul 29, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 29?$54.40Jul 29, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 30?$54.38Jul 29, 06:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 28?$55.75Jul 29, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be 98°F or higher on July 30?$53.96Jul 29, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 30?$53.93Jul 29, 05:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 28?$55.00Jul 29, 04:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 30?$54.89Jul 29, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 30?$54.33Jul 29, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 30?$54.40Jul 29, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 30?$54.89Jul 29, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 29?$54.73Jul 29, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on July 30?$54.84Jul 29, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 30?$39.87Jul 29, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be 98°F or higher on July 30?$9.81Jul 29, 03:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on July 29?$54.17Jul 29, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 30?$15.02Jul 29, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 29?$14.25Jul 28, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on July 29?$23.61Jul 28, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on July 29?$54.17Jul 28, 22:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $44.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 02:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 07:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.