Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.4K

Realised

$-119.60

Win rate

10 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 35

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 24?
597 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026
$0.00
$-298.50
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 22?
564 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026
$0.00
$-282.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18?
499 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-249.50
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5AM ET
113 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026
$0.00
$-42.99
YES
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-04-12?
100 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026
$0.00
$-53.00
YES
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-04-12?
100 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026
$0.00
$-19.00
YES
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-04-12?
100 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026
$0.00
$-23.96
YES
Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2026-04-12?
98 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026
$0.00
$-38.29
YES
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-12?
98 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026
$0.00
$-25.42
YES
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-04-12?
98 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026
$0.00
$-24.44

Recent activity

TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET$9.50Jun 18, 10:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET$9.35Jun 18, 10:35 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$2.34Jun 18, 08:58 UTC
TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$4.30Jun 18, 08:00 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$3.23Jun 18, 07:57 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET$3.50Jun 17, 21:18 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET$3.45Jun 17, 21:06 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET$3.05Jun 17, 21:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET$3.03Jun 17, 21:02 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET$1.39Jun 17, 20:58 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET$3.56Jun 17, 20:58 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET$0.30Jun 17, 20:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET$4.00Jun 17, 20:37 UTC
REDEEMWill Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$11.00Jun 12, 23:25 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$3.48Jun 12, 20:38 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?$6.79Jun 12, 20:38 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$11.00Jun 12, 20:35 UTC
SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$11.00Jun 12, 20:33 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$6.60Jun 12, 20:23 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$1.30Jun 12, 20:21 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

37/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 10 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence33 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry69 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk41 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $21.92
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 21, 18:34 UTC
Last active: Jun 18, 10:36 UTC
Win rate sample: 10 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:22:08 UTC·src:Polymarket Data