0x9726f59f915cb443842c19a817056906e4741b0d
0x9726f59f915cb443842c19a817056906e4741b0d
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
86
Open notional
$56.12
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-484.12
Win rate
2%
66 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 86- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or below on July 14?
54 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$53.51
$0.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on March 31?
3 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.61
$0.13
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 24?
1399 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-31.68
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24?
988 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-42.57
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 6°C on March 26?
294 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 24?
244 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 30?
167 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 1?
154 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 30?
133 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on March 27?
128 shares @ 11.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or below on July 14?$15.85Jul 14, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or below on July 14?$37.64Jul 14, 03:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on July 15?$33.84Jul 14, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on July 15?$34.66Jul 14, 02:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C or higher on July 13?$51.00Jul 13, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C or higher on July 13?$49.84Jul 12, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on July 11?$47.53Jul 12, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on July 11?$46.58Jul 11, 05:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 10?$53.28Jul 11, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 10?$6.93Jul 10, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 10?$45.58Jul 10, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on July 9?$51.00Jul 9, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on July 9?$21.79Jul 9, 02:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on July 9?$28.72Jul 9, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 8?$39.24Jul 7, 23:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on July 7?$11.00Jul 7, 22:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on July 7?$70.00Jul 7, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on July 7?$34.67Jul 7, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on July 7?$34.67Jul 7, 06:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on July 6?$15.00Jul 7, 05:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 66 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
66 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $31.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 00:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 03:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 66 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.