Medical-Rug-Shrimp
0x9731f5b516628409875eeb11ed96fd6529e4c146
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$88.52
Total PnL
$-28.05
Realised
$-0.83
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in July?
9 shares @ 85.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$7.26
$-0.04
- NO
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 2, 2026?
7 shares @ 60.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$6.37
$2.37
- NO
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?
25 shares @ 25.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.17
$-0.13
- YES
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
6 shares @ 82.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$5.18
$0.18
- NO
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?
6 shares @ 78.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.10
$0.10
- NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
8 shares @ 64.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$5.04
$0.04
- NO
Will 4–5 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?
7 shares @ 74.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$4.56
$-0.44
- YES
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?
7 shares @ 75.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$4.50
$-0.50
- NO
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$4.33
$-0.67
- NO
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30?
7 shares @ 68.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.30
$-0.70
Recent activity
- MERGEWill the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?$2.04Aug 2, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PAM get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?$4.03Aug 2, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PI get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?$1.03Aug 2, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?$5.00Aug 2, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?$2.03Aug 2, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?$5.04Aug 2, 07:19 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$14.40Aug 2, 07:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in August?$2.52Aug 2, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$8.00Aug 1, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$3.00Aug 1, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?$1.03Aug 1, 21:42 UTC
- TRADESELLForeign intervention in Gaza by December 31?$9.65Aug 1, 21:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in July?$2.61Aug 1, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by August 31, 2026?$1.53Aug 1, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in August?$1.00Aug 1, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tamás Fabiny be the next President of Hungary?$1.00Aug 1, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?$1.00Aug 1, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in August?$1.00Aug 1, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Elon Musk in August?$1.00Aug 1, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Betmoar launch a token by December 31, 2026?$2.01Aug 1, 11:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $2.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 00:24 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 2, 20:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.