Far-Off-Favor
0x975dfcf6d2d8268f563c693fc748ae58876f01be
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
65
Open notional
$593.39
Total PnL
$-333.31
Realised
$-302.01
Win rate
38%
47 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?
123 shares @ 16.4¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$19.06
$-1.14
- YES
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?
250 shares @ 8.2¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.75
$-1.70
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
180 shares @ 9.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$17.10
$0.93
- YES
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $30B by December 31?
73 shares @ 18.6¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$16.42
$2.83
- YES
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $4B by December 31?
102 shares @ 20.5¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.87
$-5.13
- YES
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31?
52 shares @ 31.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.74
$-0.26
- YES
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
70 shares @ 22.1¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.05
$-0.40
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?
199 shares @ 7.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$14.95
$1.00
- YES
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31?
63 shares @ 23.2¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$14.69
$0.19
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
217 shares @ 8.3¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$14.10
$-3.88
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?$2.31Jul 5, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $4B by December 31?$1.80Jul 5, 04:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?$9.00Jul 5, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $400B by December 31?$4.08Jul 5, 03:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $4B by December 31?$8.20Jul 5, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31?$11.50Jul 5, 02:42 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.51Jul 5, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $300B by December 31?$3.60Jul 5, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?$4.00Jul 5, 00:17 UTC
- REWARD$43.08Jul 5, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?$0.19Jul 4, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $4B by December 31?$11.35Jul 4, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31?$11.35Jul 4, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?$4.15Jul 4, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?$4.15Jul 4, 23:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?$0.33Jul 4, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?$2.06Jul 4, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?$9.30Jul 4, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $130B by December 31?$11.35Jul 4, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?$7.24Jul 4, 23:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 47 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
47 closed markets, 38% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $5.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 08:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 06:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 47 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.