Likable-Sprinkles
0x9771b8472f3d23b6bbc11c108fe07b425988605e
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
60
Open notional
$373.37
Total PnL
$-43.38
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- NO
Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in the Philippines by August 31?
20 shares @ 58.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Sep 3, 2026$12.10
$0.50
- NO
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by December 31?
20 shares @ 63.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.10
$-1.50
- YES
Will over 58 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?
20 shares @ 48.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$10.40
$0.80
- YES
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?
19 shares @ 56.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$10.25
$-0.58
- YES
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. have 7.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
20 shares @ 46.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$10.00
$0.80
- YES
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?
20 shares @ 52.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$9.90
$-0.50
- YES
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026?
20 shares @ 53.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$9.40
$-1.20
- NO
Grok (Web) Outage by October 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 55.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$9.20
$-1.80
- YES
Will JT Giles-Harris win the 2026 PLL Defensive Player of the Year?
20 shares @ 42.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$9.20
$0.80
- YES
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in August?
20 shares @ 48.5¢·now 44.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$8.85
$-0.85
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Centre Party (C) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?$9.00Aug 14, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 5-7 times in August?$9.70Aug 14, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrok (Web) Outage by October 31, 2026?$11.00Aug 14, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election by 30%-35%?$1.76Aug 14, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election by 30%-35%?$1.76Aug 14, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?$1.77Aug 14, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jonathan Kuminga play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?$2.95Aug 14, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JT Giles-Harris win the 2026 PLL Defensive Player of the Year?$8.40Aug 14, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Daniele Monroe-Moreno win the 2026 North Las Vegas mayoral election?$9.60Aug 14, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?$5.20Aug 14, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marvin Harrison Jr. have 7.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?$9.20Aug 14, 07:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jonathan Kuminga play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?$2.26Aug 14, 07:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Democrats win the Alaska Governor election and Republicans win the Alaska Senate election?$4.80Aug 14, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Puka Nacua have 5.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?$9.20Aug 14, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 6%-9%?$3.80Aug 14, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYSweden Parliamentary Election: V Over/Under 7%?$0.64Aug 14, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYSweden Parliamentary Election: V Over/Under 7%?$4.81Aug 14, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYSweden Parliamentary Election: V Over/Under 7%?$1.89Aug 14, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026?$10.60Aug 14, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?$1.80Aug 14, 07:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 14, 06:22 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 07:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.