Probable-Cable-Bone
0x97bf053b237464b0fe5abb0efa2ef4b2dfaa1791
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$1.62
Total PnL
$-264.49
Realised
$-7.57
Win rate
4%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
3 shares @ 88.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.62
$-1.38
- YES
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?
444 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-31.00
- YES
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?
411 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-139.70
- YES
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
193 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-15.03
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
32 shares @ 47.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
19 shares @ 15.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET
18 shares @ 55.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$0.87Jun 26, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$3.00Jun 25, 01:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.88Jun 23, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.15Jun 20, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$29.70Jun 20, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$10.30Jun 19, 22:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$10.47Jun 19, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$20.97Jun 19, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$1.05Jun 19, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$20.93Jun 19, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$1.05Jun 19, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$103.31Jun 19, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?$3.30Jun 10, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?$1.00Jun 10, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$1.06Jun 10, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$1.06Jun 10, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$1.04Jun 10, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$1.06Jun 10, 05:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$5.10Jun 10, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$5.01Jun 10, 05:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 7, 20:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 15:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.