Wallet digest

active

Activity score

55/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.6K

Realised

$-20.01

Win rate

93%

188 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
140 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026
$0.00
$-6.44
WOLVES
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs AG Super Play (BO7) - Honor of Kings Challenger Cup Stage 2
133 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
US government shutdown Saturday?
130 shares @ 77.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026
$0.00
$-0.11
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
100 shares @ 26.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026
$0.00
$-26.84
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
86 shares @ 55.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026
$0.00
$-48.05
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
81 shares @ 57.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026
$0.00
$-46.37
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
70 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-2.64
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
61 shares @ 42.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-25.57
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
60 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-2.67

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$1.56Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$10.02Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.46Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$15.23Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$11.72Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$13.32Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.30Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$11.69Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$10.28Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.12Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$14.45Jun 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$19.50Jun 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.82Jun 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$12.81May 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$25.16May 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$17.86May 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$16.04May 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.48May 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.34May 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$36.90May 23, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

56/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

93% win rate over 188 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

188 closed markets, 93% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity8 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry9 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk22 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 1
Avg trade size: $1.03
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 19, 00:30 UTC
Last active: Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 188 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 04:49:21 UTC·src:Polymarket Data