Early-Paperwork
0x983ade08ff44a13215e734e9f451b121132b6d2d
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
171
Open notional
$114.27
Total PnL
$-113.05
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 171- YES
Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May?
32 shares @ 6.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$32.50
$30.50
- YES
Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May?
15 shares @ 7.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$15.00
$13.95
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 17?
10 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$10.00
$6.10
- NO
Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in May?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.00
$2.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 20?
5 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$5.00
$2.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 68°F or higher on May 20?
5 shares @ 47.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$5.00
$2.65
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 16?
5 shares @ 38.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$5.00
$3.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 20?
5 shares @ 25.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$5.00
$3.75
- NO
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in May?
5 shares @ 45.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.00
$2.75
- NO
Will London have 30mm or more of precipitation in May?
5 shares @ 46.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.00
$2.70
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May?$0.03May 20, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 20?$1.02May 20, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 20?$0.04May 20, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 20?$0.98May 20, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 20?$1.02May 20, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on May 21?$2.01May 20, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 20?$0.48May 20, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 20?$0.54May 20, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 20?$1.02May 20, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on May 20?$1.04May 20, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be 83°F or below on May 20?$1.05May 20, 04:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in May?$0.70May 20, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in May?$1.00May 20, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in May?$0.35May 20, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 20?$0.18May 20, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 20?$1.25May 20, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 20?$0.85May 20, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 20?$0.07May 20, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 20?$1.02May 20, 02:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 20?$0.93May 20, 02:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 19, 07:21 UTC
- Last active
- May 20, 21:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.