Composed-Quote
0x98495496d107f0f5314cbd0cb5df5baf01192ee5
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
71
Open notional
$185.26
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$22.13
Win rate
25%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 71- YES
Iran leadership change by September 30?
921 shares @ 13.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$92.12
$-27.38
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
1000 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$57.00
$7.00
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
483 shares @ 16.6¢·now 7.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$33.58
$-46.42
- YES
Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?
289 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.45
$-4.55
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
114 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.06
$-7.94
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?
100 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.05
$-9.95
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
10324 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-64.99
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?
1457 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-86.00
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
1286 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in July?
1147 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$7.92Jul 29, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$5.90Jul 29, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$1.00Jul 29, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$3.99Jul 29, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$5.63Jul 29, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$2.00Jul 27, 21:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$3.00Jul 27, 21:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$2.00Jul 27, 21:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$20.72Jul 27, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$50.00Jul 27, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by September 30?$10.00Jul 27, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$2.00Jul 27, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$10.39Jul 27, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$10.35Jul 27, 11:02 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$21.88Jul 27, 05:25 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$88.59Jul 27, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?$20.65Jul 26, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in July?$5.20Jul 26, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?$51.80Jul 26, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in July?$10.39Jul 26, 18:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $46.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 14:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 10:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.