Winding-Snowsuit
0x9856e0b181ad32013b06509b18e505adb769b1ca
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$13.51
Total PnL
$-33.68
Realised
$-0.02
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.27
$0.00
- NO
Will Trump be impeached by June 30?
5 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.09
$0.05
- NO
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
2 shares @ 95.4¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.18
$0.02
- NO
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 shares @ 98.2¢·now 97.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.97
$-0.01
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on January 21?
6216 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-12.43
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on February 20?
1080 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.24
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 24?
1079 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.16
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22?
1074 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.15
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 17?
1071 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-3.21
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 1?
1059 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.12
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?$5.27Jun 21, 03:37 UTC
- REWARD$1.98Jun 5, 00:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$5.07Jun 4, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be impeached by June 30?$5.04May 21, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$5.06May 13, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUY10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$2.16May 5, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$5.00May 4, 01:38 UTC
- REDEEMTrump out as President by April 30?$5.19May 4, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$5.00Apr 22, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by April 30?$5.11Apr 10, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22?$2.15Mar 22, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 12?$2.10Mar 12, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 1?$2.12Mar 1, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 24?$2.16Feb 24, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on February 20?$3.24Feb 20, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 17?$3.21Feb 17, 08:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$480 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 2 – Feb 6?$1.01Feb 12, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on February 12?$3.16Feb 12, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 5?$2.11Feb 5, 03:47 UTC
- REDEEMBill Clinton in jail by January 31?$1.00Feb 2, 02:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $95.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 18, 00:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 21, 03:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.