Primary-Tolerance
0x9861c8d24be57c57be23306fffb0668d8f5bffae
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.41
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$1.4K
Win rate
65%
78 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
9 shares @ 17.0¢·now 4.8¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.43
$-1.10
- YES
Will Republican Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
8 shares @ 33.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.32
$-2.32
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
12 shares @ 10.9¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.27
$-1.04
- YES
Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?
9 shares @ 30.0¢·now 2.3¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.21
$-2.49
- YES
Will Charity Clark win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?
9 shares @ 44.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.18
$-3.78
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
3248 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-61.39
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
2570 shares @ 27.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-710.69
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
2547 shares @ 16.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-415.07
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
2419 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-183.12
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
1727 shares @ 15.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-264.48
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$9.00May 30, 03:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$4.77May 30, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$1.52May 28, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$0.10May 28, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$4.59May 28, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$0.09May 28, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$3.25May 28, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$1.25May 28, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$4.59May 28, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$1.05May 28, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$2.88May 28, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.96May 28, 10:32 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$9.00May 28, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$4.59May 28, 09:21 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$9.00May 28, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$4.75May 28, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$4.17May 28, 07:56 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET$10.00May 28, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET$4.97May 28, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$2.74May 28, 06:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $2.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 21, 16:10 UTC
- Last active
- May 30, 03:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 78 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.