Hoarse-Caramel
0x9891bc020a506786b370ea02558b4730e21ad78d
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$29.50
Total PnL
$-51.01
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?
100 shares @ 8.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$17.50
$9.50
- YES
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?
100 shares @ 11.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$6.50
$-4.50
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
100 shares @ 15.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.50
$-9.49
- NO
Will Fervo Energy's market cap be at least $10.0B at market close on IPO day?
500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- NO
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 10250 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?
396 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.40
- YES
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 10500 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?
200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
- YES
Will Fervo Energy's market cap be between $8.5B and $10.0B at market close on IPO day?
100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in May?
50 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 Week of May 11 2026?
50 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
30 shares @ 74.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-22.00
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$2.28Jun 28, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$0.14Jun 28, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$38.52Jun 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?$17.54Jun 27, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?$14.85Jun 27, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$2.32Jun 27, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$2.71Jun 27, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?$42.45Jun 27, 10:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$26.00Jun 27, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$26.00Jun 27, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?$42.80Jun 27, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$6.85Jun 27, 09:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$17.42Jun 27, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$18.55Jun 27, 09:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?$9.86Jun 27, 09:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$3.00Jun 27, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?$7.20Jun 27, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?$3.60Jun 27, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?$16.00Jun 27, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$3.00Jun 27, 09:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $12.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 27, 06:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 28, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.