Astonishing-Submarine
0x98a330bad9d817f656e9722b78169fae0b6eb48c
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
89
Open notional
$134.70
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$11.38
Win rate
89%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 89- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2590 shares @ 1.9¢·now 5.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$134.70
$84.68
- NO
Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m?
6565 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 10, 2025$0.00
$-6.57
- YES
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
3309 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-201.82
- YES
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election?
3000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by Friday?
3000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?
2000 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?
1888 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2025$0.00
$-22.66
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be from another party?
1804 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-9.02
- NO
Will turnout in the first round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be at least 53%?
1600 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-27.20
- YES
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 163m and 175m?
1530 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 24, 2025$0.00
$-1.53
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.