Frayed-Hostel
0x98ac23b264a9eb7fb0b50258086f11868a6240d9
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$137.63
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$-19.53
Win rate
30%
33 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
100 shares @ 78.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$82.50
$4.50
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?
100 shares @ 20.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$16.50
$-3.50
- YES
Will Elly De La Cruz hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
180 shares @ 1.0¢·now 5.9¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$10.64
$8.88
- YES
Will Matt Olson hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
97 shares @ 1.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$2.46
$1.51
- YES
Will Shohei Ohtani hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
252 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$2.14
$-0.33
- YES
Will Jaylen Brown play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?
150 shares @ 2.8¢·now 1.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.73
$-2.44
- YES
Will Pete Alonso hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
269 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.6¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$1.61
$-1.02
- YES
Will Jaylen Brown play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
150 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.9¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.27
$-2.89
- YES
Will Juan Soto hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
227 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$1.25
$-0.98
- YES
Will Dante Gebel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
119 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.9¢·exp Oct 24, 2027$1.01
$-0.85
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$2.27Jul 3, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?$2.05Jul 3, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Erling Haaland win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?$9.74Jul 3, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?$8.10Jul 3, 00:24 UTC
- REWARD$38.61Jul 3, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.69Jul 2, 23:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.83Jul 2, 23:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.99Jul 2, 23:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?$1.09Jul 2, 20:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jaylen Brown play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?$0.00Jul 2, 20:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.29Jul 2, 20:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$8.57Jul 2, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$5.36Jul 2, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.64Jul 2, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.81Jul 2, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?$20.00Jul 2, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?$78.69Jul 2, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$7.28Jul 2, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$9.24Jul 2, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$4.70Jul 2, 18:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 33 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
33 closed markets, 30% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $10.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 16:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 33 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.