Wallet digest

active

Activity score

38/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-11.5K

Realised

$-181.93

Win rate

21%

19 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7PM ET
876 shares @ 34.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-300.69
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8PM ET
872 shares @ 34.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-297.52
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET
662 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-390.45
NO
Ethereum above 2,125 on May 20, 2AM ET?
595 shares @ 37.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-220.98
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET
565 shares @ 30.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-171.07
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
527 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-57.77
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
444 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-213.06
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
442 shares @ 57.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026
$0.00
$-252.52
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
442 shares @ 58.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-256.95
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6PM ET
441 shares @ 49.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-216.47

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin above 64,200 on July 29, 11AM ET?$10.97Jul 29, 21:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin above 64,200 on July 29, 11AM ET?$6.98Jul 29, 14:56 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin above 64,000 on July 28, 11PM ET?$5.45Jul 29, 03:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin above 64,000 on July 28, 11PM ET?$3.14Jul 29, 02:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4PM ET$2.33Jul 28, 20:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$6.62Jul 28, 15:25 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5AM ET$11.82Jul 28, 10:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5AM ET$8.10Jul 28, 09:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3AM ET$11.01Jul 28, 08:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3AM ET$8.54Jul 28, 07:24 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 12AM ET$5.38Jul 28, 05:11 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 12AM ET$2.89Jul 28, 04:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$11.77Jul 26, 21:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$8.53Jul 26, 21:47 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 26, 7AM ET$10.00Jul 26, 12:12 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 7AM ET$10.20Jul 26, 12:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 7AM ET$8.50Jul 26, 11:56 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 26, 7AM ET$6.66Jul 26, 11:41 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 12AM ET$5.73Jul 26, 05:23 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 26, 12AM ET$3.00Jul 26, 04:55 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

47/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

21% win rate over 19 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity68 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence63 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry62 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk36 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 33
Avg trade size: $3.92
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 23, 07:48 UTC
Last active: Jul 29, 21:19 UTC
Win rate sample: 19 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 22:20:17 UTC·src:Polymarket Data