Waterlogged-Songbird
0x98cad902477ead9b605959112ab26cada0475895
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
117
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-223.80
Realised
$1.08
Win rate
78%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 117- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
31 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-4.98
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
31 shares @ 32.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.98
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
29 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-13.64
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
21 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-9.84
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
19 shares @ 56.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
17 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
15 shares @ 32.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.92
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5AM ET
15 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.94
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
15 shares @ 52.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-7.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 16?
14 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$1.80Jul 15, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$1.05Jul 15, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$1.24Jul 15, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$2.25May 24, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$1.16May 24, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$1.14May 24, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$1.05May 24, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$1.14May 24, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$1.06May 23, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$6.47May 23, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$1.16May 23, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$1.06May 23, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$1.40May 23, 05:29 UTC
- TRADESELLBase FDV above $2B one day after launch?$4.20May 23, 04:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$0.00May 20, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$0.00May 20, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$0.01May 20, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$0.00May 20, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$0.00May 20, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$0.00May 20, 07:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $1.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 06:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 05:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.