Harmless-Charge
0x9934b6f25a94bb2d97f27e8870fb587458f84288
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-423.70
Win rate
17%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 7?
5088 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2025$0.00
$-5.09
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
4001 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-200.95
- YES
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?
2000 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-62.45
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?
1162 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2024$0.00
$-45.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 4?
1011 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-23.67
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,000 and $4,100 on September 29?
1000 shares @ 31.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 29, 2025$0.00
$-315.10
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October 1?
818 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2025$0.00
$-15.85
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50-55 million views on day 1?
695 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.39
- YES
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?
670 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-20.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 1?$8.80Nov 27, 18:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 2?$8.80Nov 27, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 12PM ET$5.47Nov 27, 16:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$0.09Nov 27, 16:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 2?$2.20Nov 27, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$1.00Nov 27, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$1.00Nov 27, 13:28 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 8AM ET$5.18Nov 27, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 8AM ET$2.81Nov 27, 13:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$2.81Nov 27, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$3.07Nov 27, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$1.00Nov 27, 12:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 2?$2.99Nov 27, 12:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 2?$1.07Nov 27, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 2?$2.25Nov 27, 03:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 2?$2.25Nov 27, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 2?$3.98Nov 27, 03:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 10PM ET$2.28Nov 27, 03:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 10PM ET$3.00Nov 27, 03:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 2?$4.71Nov 27, 03:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $3.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 21, 02:01 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 27, 18:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.