Smart-Pathway
0x993c072519306017fe9a6b3ee6fa4a02b3056787
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
100
Open notional
$70.3K
Total PnL
$413.86
Realised
$12.6K
Win rate
58%
55 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 100- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
17007 shares @ 31.2¢·now 40.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$6.9K
$1.6K
- YES
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
18500 shares @ 35.9¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.6K
$-1.0K
- NO
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by July 31, 2026?
4000 shares @ 95.6¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.0K
$131.38
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
6000 shares @ 46.3¢·now 61.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.7K
$909.86
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
3500 shares @ 91.8¢·now 97.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.4K
$190.51
- YES
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
3500 shares @ 58.0¢·now 88.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.1K
$1.1K
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
5000 shares @ 56.9¢·now 56.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.8K
$-20.49
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
20000 shares @ 18.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.8K
$-800.34
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
4000 shares @ 64.3¢·now 68.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.7K
$167.39
- NO
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by September 30, 2026?
2504 shares @ 89.6¢·now 91.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.3K
$35.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$418.40Jul 28, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$45.52Jul 28, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$87.43Jul 28, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$273.99Jul 28, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$74.80Jul 28, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$370.00Jul 28, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$412.95Jul 28, 19:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$582.86Jul 28, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$190.35Jul 28, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$437.00Jul 28, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$389.69Jul 28, 19:32 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$408.92Jul 28, 19:28 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$439.00Jul 28, 19:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$435.00Jul 28, 19:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$295.50Jul 28, 19:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$133.50Jul 28, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$240.00Jul 28, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?$1.91Jul 28, 18:46 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$1.0KJul 28, 18:41 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$412.21Jul 28, 18:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
76/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 55 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
55 closed markets, 58% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $169.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 17:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 55 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.