Incredible-Pompom
0x993cf3753a269d98a82ef4ecf1f55ca7b1058fe5
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$5.90
Total PnL
$-14.84
Realised
$-0.74
Win rate
0%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 18?
3 shares @ 32.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$3.13
$2.13
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 17?
3 shares @ 36.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$2.78
$1.78
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C on May 15?
21 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on May 14?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 12?
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 17?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on May 17?
5 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 8?
4 shares @ 22.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 17?$1.03May 17, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 17?$1.04May 17, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 18?$1.03May 16, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 17?$1.03May 15, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on May 17?$1.04May 15, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 17?$1.04May 15, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 6°C on May 15?$1.05May 15, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16?$1.04May 15, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15?$1.04May 14, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15?$1.03May 14, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 14?$1.03May 13, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on May 14?$1.04May 13, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 6°C on May 14?$1.04May 12, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on May 13?$1.03May 12, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10?$4.04May 11, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 12?$1.04May 10, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11?$1.04May 9, 17:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on May 8?$2.69May 9, 09:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8?$3.33May 8, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10?$1.04May 8, 16:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $1.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 7, 04:54 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 05:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.