0x9940572ab223cb22bafc25ef90680bea14155cb3
0x9940572ab223cb22bafc25ef90680bea14155cb3
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$30.00
Total PnL
$-10.89
Realised
$-5.23
Win rate
50%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 12?
5 shares @ 62.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$5.00
$1.90
- NO
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?
5 shares @ 96.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$5.00
$0.17
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$5.00
$1.95
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?
5 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$5.00
$1.60
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
5 shares @ 22.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$5.00
$3.85
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?
5 shares @ 87.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$5.00
$0.64
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
16 shares @ 15.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
5 shares @ 18.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?
5 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 17?
5 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$0.00Apr 20, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 12?$0.00Mar 22, 17:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 17?$0.00Mar 22, 17:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?$0.00Mar 22, 17:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 12?$0.00Mar 22, 17:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$0.00Mar 22, 17:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$0.00Mar 22, 17:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?$0.00Mar 22, 17:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$0.00Mar 22, 17:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?$0.00Mar 22, 17:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?$0.00Mar 22, 17:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?$0.00Mar 22, 17:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 12?$0.00Mar 22, 17:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?$0.00Mar 22, 16:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$0.00Mar 22, 16:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?$0.00Mar 22, 16:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?$0.00Mar 22, 16:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?$0.00Mar 22, 16:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 12?$0.00Mar 22, 16:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 13?$0.00Mar 22, 16:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 22, 15:51 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 20, 15:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.