0x994f4d84e76195488a46d8402574da46641c508d
0x994f4d84e76195488a46d8402574da46641c508d
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.14
Total PnL
$-3.5K
Realised
$-162.89
Win rate
15%
68 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 7?
82 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.41
$-7.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 7?
82 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.37
$-7.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 7?
82 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.12
$-7.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 7?
82 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.12
$-7.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on July 7?
82 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.12
$-40.71
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 30?
180 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on May 26?
180 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 26?
180 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-16.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 30?
180 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-16.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 30?
180 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-16.36
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 7?$1.03Jul 5, 17:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 7?$0.28Jul 5, 17:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 7?$3.60Jul 5, 17:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 7?$0.39Jul 5, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 7?$1.72Jul 5, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 7?$9.24Jul 5, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on July 6?$0.16Jul 5, 17:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 6?$1.09Jul 5, 17:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 7?$1.62Jul 5, 16:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 7?$7.49Jul 5, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 6?$0.19Jul 5, 16:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 6?$0.45Jul 5, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 6?$0.42Jul 5, 16:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 6?$4.42Jul 5, 16:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 7?$2.25Jul 5, 16:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on July 6?$0.11Jul 5, 16:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 7?$0.26Jul 5, 16:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 6?$0.52Jul 5, 16:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 6?$0.86Jul 5, 16:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 6?$0.50Jul 5, 15:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
15% win rate over 68 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
68 closed markets, 15% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 11:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 17:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 68 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.