0x994f4d84e76195488a46d8402574da46641c508d
0x994f4d84e76195488a46d8402574da46641c508d
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-11.7K
Realised
$-1.5K
Win rate
6%
71 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 30?
180 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on May 26?
180 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 26?
180 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 30?
180 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 30?
180 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 26?
180 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 26?
180 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on May 23?
172 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-86.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C or higher on June 22?
164 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-82.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or below on June 22?
164 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-82.07
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?$1.66Jul 17, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 15?$9.70Jul 15, 16:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 14?$0.12Jul 15, 16:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 14?$28.97Jul 15, 16:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 14?$4.84Jul 15, 16:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 14?$7.04Jul 15, 16:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 14?$2.48Jul 15, 16:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 14?$2.07Jul 15, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 15?$4.56Jul 15, 11:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 15?$1.00Jul 15, 11:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 15?$1.00Jul 15, 11:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 15?$1.00Jul 15, 10:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 15?$1.00Jul 15, 10:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 15?$6.07Jul 15, 10:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 15?$1.00Jul 15, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 15?$0.19Jul 15, 07:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 15?$0.09Jul 15, 06:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?$0.12Jul 15, 04:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?$0.15Jul 15, 04:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 15?$11.26Jul 15, 03:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
69/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 71 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
71 closed markets, 6% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $2.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 05:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 18:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 71 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.