Celebrated-Mambo
0x99519b14c9759991f24eac0a1fe5a55b41522283
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$7.64
Total PnL
$0.12
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 5?
3 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$2.89
$0.01
- YES
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's December 2025 meeting?
3 shares @ 96.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$2.58
$0.09
- NO
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 5?
2 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.17
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 5?$2.15Dec 4, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 5?$2.88Dec 4, 19:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 28?$3.01Dec 4, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's December 2025 meeting?$2.49Nov 28, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 28?$3.00Nov 28, 22:09 UTC
- REDEEMFlames vs. Kings$0.74Nov 28, 22:04 UTC
- REDEEMHornets vs. Clippers$1.01Nov 28, 22:04 UTC
- REDEEMSpurs vs. Lakers$1.05Nov 28, 22:04 UTC
- REDEEMGrizzlies vs. Timberwolves$0.00Jan 13, 20:41 UTC
- REDEEMSenators vs. Penguins$0.00Jan 13, 20:41 UTC
- REDEEMRaptors vs. Pistons$0.00Jan 13, 20:41 UTC
- REDEEMOilers vs. Blackhawks$0.00Jan 13, 20:41 UTC
- REDEEMStars vs. Canadiens$1.51Jan 13, 20:41 UTC
- REDEEMDucks vs. Flyers$1.62Jan 13, 20:41 UTC
- REDEEMHeat vs. Trail Blazers$1.68Jan 13, 20:41 UTC
- REDEEMAvalanche vs. Jets$2.29Jan 13, 20:41 UTC
- REDEEMKraken vs. Sabres$2.39Jan 13, 20:41 UTC
- REDEEMBlue Jackets vs. Blues$2.78Jan 13, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYOilers vs. Blackhawks$1.07Jan 11, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStars vs. Canadiens$1.01Jan 11, 19:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $1.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 9, 22:29 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 4, 19:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.