Insubstantial-Screamer
0x999f3c7a1ec4c6b876fdc5f43aff0e8718b1da43
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$519.77
Total PnL
$-2.9K
Realised
$-244.00
Win rate
21%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- NO
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $108 in July?
100 shares @ 91.4¢·now 92.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$91.95
$0.55
- NO
Will Hong Kong have between 525-550mm of precipitation in July?
100 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$89.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Hong Kong have 600mm or more of precipitation in July?
100 shares @ 71.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$64.00
$-7.00
- YES
Vertiv (VRT) Q2 adjusted operating margin 20%-22%?
140 shares @ 40.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$62.34
$6.30
- YES
Will Seattle have less than 0.5 inches of precipitation in July?
70 shares @ 70.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$47.60
$-1.40
- NO
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 in July?
49 shares @ 85.5¢·now 83.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$40.74
$-1.23
- YES
Vertiv (VRT) Q2 adjusted operating margin 22%-24%?
98 shares @ 41.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$37.28
$-2.94
- NO
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by July 31?
39 shares @ 89.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$31.59
$-3.12
- YES
Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?
37 shares @ 78.9¢·now 77.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$28.96
$-0.54
- NO
Will Seattle have between 2 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in July?
29 shares @ 91.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$25.81
$-0.58
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $108 in July?$91.71Jul 23, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 in July?$21.22Jul 23, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 in July?$20.98Jul 23, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?$29.81Jul 23, 05:01 UTC
- TRADESELLVertiv (VRT) Q2 adjusted operating margin 22%-24%?$11.58Jul 23, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have between 525-550mm of precipitation in July?$90.45Jul 23, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have 600mm or more of precipitation in July?$72.03Jul 23, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Seattle have less than 0.5 inches of precipitation in July?$49.73Jul 23, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Seattle have between 2 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in July?$26.51Jul 23, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYVertiv (VRT) Q2 adjusted operating margin 20%-22%?$3.73Jul 23, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by July 31?$34.86Jul 23, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYVertiv (VRT) Q2 adjusted operating margin 20%-22%?$53.66Jul 23, 04:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYVertiv (VRT) Q2 adjusted operating margin 22%-24%?$55.02Jul 23, 04:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $123 Week of April 6 2026?$154.69Apr 7, 05:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 26?$0.00Apr 6, 13:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of January 26?$0.00Apr 6, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $123 Week of April 6 2026?$147.25Apr 6, 13:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?$0.75Apr 6, 08:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?$5.09Apr 6, 08:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in March?$0.51Mar 31, 09:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
21% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $37.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 18, 04:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 05:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.