Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.8K

Realised

$-102.98

Win rate

59 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 59

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
352 shares @ 69.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-242.97
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET
341 shares @ 54.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-184.78
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
262 shares @ 55.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-144.41
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
228 shares @ 64.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-145.68
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
203 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-125.66
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
180 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-81.28
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
180 shares @ 42.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-76.35
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
147 shares @ 66.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-96.92
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
144 shares @ 67.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$0.00
$-97.72
YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?
136 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-88.19

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$20.09Jul 16, 14:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$25.05Jul 16, 14:11 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$27.99Jul 16, 14:10 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$25.08Jul 16, 14:07 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$0.00Jul 16, 14:05 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$31.06Jul 16, 14:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$25.15Jul 16, 14:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$4.99Jul 16, 14:00 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$29.55Jul 16, 14:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$25.07Jul 16, 13:58 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$27.56Jul 16, 13:55 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$25.09Jul 16, 13:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$25.11Jul 16, 13:51 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$26.85Jul 16, 13:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$25.09Jul 16, 13:47 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET$24.98Jul 15, 02:30 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET$24.99Jul 15, 02:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$25.15Jul 15, 02:22 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$30.26Jul 15, 02:21 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$25.08Jul 15, 02:17 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

64/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 59 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

59 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity37 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry76 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk31 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 29
Avg trade size: $23.84
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 9, 08:53 UTC
Last active: Jul 16, 14:16 UTC
Win rate sample: 59 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 17:38:54 UTC·src:Polymarket Data