Favorite-Survey
0x99da95915cf85956466926fce20e068d2e29f46b
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$131.75
Total PnL
$229.14
Realised
$230.76
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
35 shares @ 98.7¢·now 98.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$34.46
$0.02
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
28 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$27.42
$-0.01
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 12?
25 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$24.99
$0.01
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 13?
23 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$22.94
$-0.01
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on August 12?
22 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$21.95
$-0.01
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 11?
90 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.49
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 10?
80 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11?
55 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 11?
55 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10?
55 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.06
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?$34.45Aug 10, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on August 12?$21.96Aug 10, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$27.43Aug 10, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 13?$22.96Aug 10, 01:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 12?$24.98Aug 10, 01:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be greater than $68,000 on July 5?$19.00Aug 10, 01:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $700 in July?$20.00Aug 10, 01:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 6?$21.00Aug 10, 01:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $37,500 in July?$23.00Aug 10, 01:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be greater than $120 on July 6?$24.19Aug 10, 01:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $10 in July?$25.00Aug 10, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be greater than $120 on July 6?$24.17Jul 4, 11:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $10 in July?$24.95Jul 4, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 6?$20.98Jul 4, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $700 in July?$19.96Jul 4, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be greater than $68,000 on July 5?$18.98Jul 4, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $37,500 in July?$22.96Jul 4, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11?$15.00Jul 4, 11:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12?$16.00Jul 4, 11:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12?$17.00Jul 4, 11:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $24.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 05:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 01:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.