Shiny-Twist
0x9a31f52b432003d464704c37aff239bb2cfcb2c2
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.1K
Realised
$42.28
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2083 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 5?
1924 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-3.54
- YES
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1897 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 9?
1889 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.89
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 14?
1860 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.40
- OVER
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 2.5
1754 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-1000.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C or below on July 14?
1335 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- NO
Bitcoin above 62,000 on July 3, 4PM ET?
1202 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-49.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C or higher on July 14?
952 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 16?$2.05Jul 16, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 16?$1.05Jul 16, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on July 17?$1.04Jul 16, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 17?$1.04Jul 16, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 16?$1.05Jul 16, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 16?$1.04Jul 16, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 15?$7.13Jul 15, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C or below on July 16?$1.05Jul 15, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 16?$1.05Jul 15, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 16?$1.05Jul 15, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 15, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 15, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 15, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or below on July 15?$1.05Jul 15, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 16?$1.04Jul 15, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 16?$1.05Jul 15, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on July 16?$1.05Jul 15, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on July 15?$1.05Jul 15, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 15, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 15, 00:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 09:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 15:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.